Hey, did you hear Humboldt County is freaking out at the upcoming statewide legalization of marijuana? The Associated Press, NPR and even the latest issue of Rolling Stone have zeroed in on the local woe. You’ll have to get a hard copy of that last one — it’s not online.
Got questions? Answers? Ideas? This event is for you:
UPDATE: Reports from the event:
The poor unemployed former marijuana farmers can do what millions of other Americans have done to provide a living for themselves and their loved ones – “Get a Job!”
big agrabiz will be growing plenty of weed. It will be for the hemp market. This hemp weed will have very little THC but lots of fiber. There is a big market for high quality hemp fiber. The fields are full of female and MALE plants. Pollen will fill the air. Seeds are sold a byproduct for oil. No outdoor ganja will be unpollinated. Even indoor will pick up this hemp pollen.
“Bring your own munchies, er ‘snacks’…” That cracks me up.
they can set up their grow operations in other states and keep livin’ the dream, or of course, get a job (hippie).
Yes, ask all the timber workers how many jobs there are out there.
For years we have heard the old canard about how dependent Humb County’s economy is on the dope growers.
If pot is legalized those scum bags will be put out of business by agri businesses & we will see the financial impact here will be minimal. The only one hurt may be a couple of hardware stores and a couple of stores who specialize in water systems.
The real damage will be in the escalating drug use & the cost to society for their treatment and upkeep.
Well it looks like Anna Banana has already found her new career as a sociologist/economist. Good for her. Is there any money in sociology? How do I get trained? Hmmmmmm. . . ..
“The real damage will be in the escalating drug use & the cost to society for their treatment and upkeep.”
You know we are talking about weed right?
As soon as they all start paying income tax we’ll be able to pay for all that free health care
I can’t make this event today and was wondering if you’re going to cover it Heraldo(incognito of course!)?
I may go, but Eric Kirk will most likely cover the event.
I look forward to the legalization. We need to try it for a few years at least. Went to Rita’s in Arcata recently, and the dreads and patched together pants and stench from what I assume are growers was noticeable. We sure have an interesting culture here. I am all for some change.
You might be confused by a stereotype, Miss. Dreads and patched pants do not a grower make. But the odds that a fattie was burned shortly before entering Rita’s is quite high (pun!).
HF says, “If pot is legalized those scum bags will be put out of business by agri businesses & we will see the financial impact here will be minimal. The only one hurt may be a couple of hardware stores and a couple of stores who specialize in water systems.”
You show yourself to have no understanding of the local economy and no connection to any local retailers or car/truck sellers.
When will the Humboldt Association of Realtors be holding a ‘What’s After Pot?’ symposium to examine the real estate angle?
Cal Watchdog took a look at the legalization effort in California today:
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2010/03/22/new-legal-pot-plan-faces-strong-opposition/
HumCo got along just fine before the MJ boom, and will be fine after the MJ bust. How’s this for a scenario:
MJ bust drives housing and rural property prices back down to a reasonable level. This makes the area attractive to small businesses who want to attract the kind of workers who will trade $$ for quality of life and life in a beautiful, outdoor oriented area. More companies like Yakima, Kokotat, and other light manufacturing or web-based stuff, the kind of companies that were forced to leave for areas with a larger skills pool when housing prices spiked, graduall move backin. Boutique growers remain. We end up with a less lucrative, but more stable economy. The area wins, the black market loses. CAMP workers and lowlife tweaker growers (there are responsible ones) have to find a new job.
What do you think?
I am constantly amazed by the idea that folks have that growing is just throwing seeds down, up comes buds, people roll into town and you get rich. It is high end gardening and damn hard work to be profitable.
HF, I agree with you on many thing but you have no clue of what is going on or the economics of the crop.” Scum “, a huge number of growers (indoor) are just average people that because of hard times are making money from their homes.
This MJ boom has been going on for 40 years. The economy will be greatly effected. Most growers are not tweakers, and CAMP workers come from local CHP, Sheriff, and City police departments. Every small business in Humboldt sees pot dollars. Every Restaurant, bar, brew, car lot, coffee shop, dentist, doctor, chiropractor, dog groomer, vet, contractor, plumber, cabinet maker, etc etc.
Neo your scenario will not happen given the current state of economy in both California and US. There is no economy going to be left after this health care travesty.
HiFi, what was the cost to society in terms of “escalating drug use… treatment and upkeep” before FDR outlawed marijuana in 1937? Just wondering. And like another poster said: you do know we’re discussing pot, right? I’m from a family of alcoholics, and I can tell you alcoholism has a far, far, FAR more devastating effect on one’s life (and one’s family life) than marijuana does.
As for the dreads, patched pants, and stench: that is indeed a subculture of which we see quite a few denizens in HumCo, but I’ve got to say… I don’t know any growers who fit that description. Trimmers, yes. Growers, no.
The drug war has been a total failure on more levels than I can count. It’s time to end it. As for the local economy, maybe if pot is legal, prices are driven down, and there’s no incentive to grow in our precious public lands, that ecotourism that we keep talking about will finally have a chance to take root. The hippies who came here in the 60′s and 70′s simply have to come to grips with the fact that what their little paradise morphed into is a vile mess of crime, secrecy, environmental devastation, artificially-jacked-up property prices, and societal malaise.
More companies like Yakima, Kokotat, and other light manufacturing or web-based stuff, the kind of companies that were forced to leave for areas with a larger skills pool when housing prices spiked, graduall move backin
Unlikely, imo. We’re still in California and California’s business climate continues to get worse, regardless of what happens with mj. A company would be foolish to move here when there are better places to be.
Humboldt County already has light industry. It is called pot growing. In the cities like Arcata and Eureka it is light industry, in the countryside it is agriculture. The only problem is these industries have to be rationalized, with the indoor grows moved out of neighborhoods and into LEGAL quarters in industrial zones, with solar and wind power etc.
This light industry pot growing brings between 1 to 3 billion $ each year to Humboldt County, with similar amounts to Mendocino.
have a peaceful day,
Bill
$10,000 to $30,000 per resident per year?
Commercial indoor grows should be in “legal” places, while if a consumer wishes to grow his/her own, that should be allowed also. A major part of legalization should be that anyone can do it(non-industrial/commercial).
“6pm-7pm stakeholder introductions” ?!?
wish i wasn’t busy tonight, this looks interesting.
Short Term: MJ legalization will DEVASTATE Humco.
Long Term: Ghost Town.
Solution: Sell now and move to Costa Rica.
Can you motherfuckers please think about this shit before I have to be all schooling you about pollen again?
Lemme just explain it again.
Seed hemp growers isolate their crop because the minute you get that bastard ditchweed hemp pollen on your sweet tasting seed crop, your seeds/oil come out tasting like ass. Seed hemp comes in specific strains that professional seed farmers isolate from each other to avoid fucking up the that good ass hemp oil taste. You won’t be seeing any bammer-pollinated seed in Japanese spices or high-end, cold-pressed hemp oil anytime soon. Don’t tell me you can’t tell the difference between commercial hemp seed and some bullshit you pull off a hermie Bubba Kush plant.
Industrial hemp produces pinner ass flowers. The best strains of industrial hemp are mostly female with sterile males. Do you suppose that is gonna pollinate shit?
The only pollen that even gets on weed is pollen from people growing weed. If pollen was really that potent, all the motherfucking weed in Humboldt would be pollinated by the few scrubs who neglect to cull one or two males and end up growing ten foot males. That entire scrub garden gets pollinated, but the one next door doesn’t because the pollen concentration is thousands of times higher near the source than it is due to a wind vector.
Sadly for Humboldt, legalization will exclude folks who don’t understand basic plant growing shit from the market which will be dominated by people who do. Up until now, all you had to know was water clone, side dress with ferts, sneak around in camo, carry a shotgun, and spray some toxic ass shit on bugs/mold. Now folks will at least have to take some kinna basic horticulture seminar.
Mr. Nice,
Did you learn English from watching The Wire? Just wondering.
Yes, I learned English from some fake assed, exploitative TV show.
Heraldo, I realize that generalizations are unfair, but I do have rentals, as well as a pretty good sniffer, and I have to tell you I am usually pretty accurate about who grows and what a lot of them look like (and smell like). Another “type” are young men who look edgy-yuppie, but they still smell like skunk cabbage.
I knew it! Thanks.
This whole county smells like pot and you are sniffing trustafarians?
Pot growing and pot smoking are different smells.
Mitch, what do you look like?
People usually tell me I look a lot like a younger Brad Pitt.
If College of the Redwoods were smart, they would jump all over this by placing horticulture related classes in the new Garberville instructional site that just recently opened. If looked at proactively, this would be the equivolent of teaching vocational technology classes to timber workers in the 1970′s, computer classes to students in the 1980′s and solar voltaic classes now. What growers in the Southern Humboldt/Mendocino region have teaching credentials for community college? And look at the CR Ag Farm in Shively. Wouldn’t that be a great model farm for outdoor growing? There used to be HROP (Humboldt Regional Occupational Programs) that gave high school students and community members skills to go out into the workforce. Could that work?
To quote Reverend Johnson from Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddle: “O Lord, do we have the strength to carry off this mighty task? Or are we just jerking off?”
No one would ever confuse you with a pot grower.
You’ve just never seen me in my camo tuxedo, H.
Oh Mitch! Smart AND gorgeous? Be still my heart!
Just picture Mr. Nice’s smarter, handsomer, nicer younger mofo brother.
If everyone smoked pot we’ed be less judgemental and less competitive. Society would be improved.
You’d have to be brothers by another mother.
dear 9:43. Trimmers don’t look like this either. Your local grocery store checkers, and, must I say, many other normal people. love ya.
If they adjusted the pH… prolly. The soil there is good for squash, cabbage, peas, pumpkins, corn, wheat and willow trees. Their other produce tastes like the soil is too sweet there. I still go and hook it up whenever they have a sale. If it were a pot farm, folks might haul in some iron, sulfur, or some type of (literal) horseshit. But naw, in general, that Shively site would need some work before it could produce dank. I know those folks who work on it know that land is problematic, but it ain’t like they have resources to change it up.
Ha ha! Thanks for the laughs. Have to go do my (legal) job now….
Growing up, we made up stories for why he was so bad at sports and school until he was old enough to let him know the truth about the hillbilly couple who abandoned him in the K-Mart parking lot on their way to follow the Hank Williams Jr. and friends tour. It’s all good though, I had him get nice when he was in high school.
Mr. Nice is projecting again.
I always had my suspicions. But I’d thought the sports thing was a different issue entirely.
What a bunch of morons.
There is no money in growing, there is money in services.
Did San Francisco have any gold? No.
Economics is not a game to be played by children like ya’ll.
Here’s what will happen: Some growers will lose out on their cash cows. Big whoop. Other people, a few growers but mostly business operators, will gain tremendously.
Legal Marijuana will be an ENORMOUS boon to the economy here. It will be like the return of the timber industry. 15 years from now you will understand.
Rejoice in legalized marijuana. There is simply no down-side.
AnonyMiss and Jane:
Sorry to disappoint you, but although Mitch is a handsome fellow, I think you’re outta luck.
It’s not that he’s “out of your league,” its just that he’s playing a different game altogether.
;)
On the plus side for Shively, my understanding is that the whole flood plain there is sub-irrigated — the water table is only a few feet down, even in the summertime. Get your plants in early enough (seedlings being the best because they send down a big ol’ taproot) and don’t overwater, and they should be able to reach down and get the majority of water that they need on their own. Sweet. Free light, free water — who cares if you have to use some organic soil amendments.
Well, you always were the family swimming star. There is something good to be said for that. I’ll always love you bro even if grandma disowned you for always reneging in spades.
Now that is just unreasonable, Reasonable. How do know what games we are playing or in what league? Besides, us old ladies need our fantasies too.
True enough, Jane. But not too many straight men choose my issues (elsewhere). We can both wish they did, ’cause they’re good issues.
What issues?
This thread is starting not to make perfect sense like it did earlier.
I don’t know anything about your issues other than what you post here, Mitch. I do know straight men who care about gay civil rights, though, and I think everyone should because in the end, they are just basic human rights.
I’m married to my Anony.Mister, but I thought Mitch might look like a pot grower.
OK, I take back 12:59. I’m getting lost, too.
And I still have no idea what a pot grower looks like.
Just kiddin’. Someone tell me to get back to work. Why do I get so distracted by this blog?
It’s not like most people who grow pot look completely indistinguishable from everyone else. That would make it so that the police would have a hard time busting them all and completely eradicating cannabis to the point where it is impossible to get any purple clones over the fence from your 85 year old neighbor. You can tell pot growers easily by all the loose buds hanging out of their camouflage sweatpants and the bud stuck to their hands and feet. The average pot grower is completely covered in bud and smells like Train Wreck which is why Anony.Miss must have had some not-so-average growers tear up those houses.
Anony.Miss you are time stealing. Don’t make me tell your Anony.visor.
Ha Ha. For this job, I am my own boss. It means I’ll have to work weekends when I don’t get it done during the week. I have another job where I do have a boss.
I don’t know why, but a lot of growers (mostly outdoor) drive beat up Toyota Forerunners. Regardless of their clothing, they all do have that weird odor. The ones that have torn up rentals in the past fooled me with their standard clothing and innocent stories but I hope I am smarter now.
Most pot growers have two arms, hands, two legs, two feet, two eyes, two ears, two nostrils, but only ONE mouth!
So be on the lookout for people who fit this description. In Humboldt around 30-40% of people who fit that profile are pot growers. In Sohum, it’s probably 75% of those fitting that profile.
APD, EPD: Toyota Forerunners. Get on it.
AnonyMiss:
Are you familiar with what patchouli smells like? Perhaps that’s the odor you’re smelling? We used to call Patchouli the “hippie shower.” Hey at least they’re conserving water, right?
I can’t possibly think of any use for a 4Runner around here besides growing pot in it given that we have such flat, well-maintained roads.
Yes, Anony. The only advantage to being a wage slave, IMO, is that you get paid extra to work weekends. I’d hire a boss, but they would probably still make me do it. :P
Yeah, patchouli- used to wear it, now I don’t like the smell. No, I know what I’m smelling- walking into a rental a few times filled with pot and smelling it all over town just passing by, you get pretty familiar.
I am eager to try legalization. I am not a fan of any substance that alters a person’s state being encouraged, but pot is a fact around here and I am not perfectly unaltered myself here and there. I hope it’s good for everyone when/if they legalize it.
What does a pot grower look like?
There are tens of thousands of pot-growers in Humboldt, and they look like rednecks, hippies, dread-heads, yuppies, preppies, jocks, businesspeople in casual attire, senior citizens, average Joes and Jills, soccer dads and hockey moms, locals, newcomers, immigrants, rural homesteaders, suburban neighbors, farmers, mechanics, students, landlords, tenants, etc.
People tend to only notice those who fit their already-existing ideas of what pot growers look like (hippies, or whatever), and those who make little effort to conceal their occupations. Everyone else benefits from these stereotypes, because it makes it easier for them to “fly under the radar.”
AnonyMiss,
Re: altered states
For some folks, their normal state benefits from some altering, either on a continual basis, or from time to time.
You are right, of course. I should have just said that the patrons who were in Rita’s sure looked like a motley crew, but they smelled like growers… And there were Forerunners outside with pitbulls in them.. (jk)
Of course there are always some who fit the stereotypes. Some people seem to make a point of it!
It would be nice if our politicians worried less about making this county a better place to raise drugs and more about making it a better place to raise children. but….thats democrats for ya.
Democrats like Roger Rodoni?
Wasn’t it Ed Parsons, candidate for DA years ago, who wrote a book about the economic benefits Humboldt gains from pot growing? Pot money spends just like mill money and it has kept this county barely above water since timber started to fail. It is a bit scary because every business benefited and there is nothing to replace it. Have there been any predictions of how much the price will drop once it is legalized?
Price fluctuates according to supply and demand. With pot, there has always been an “inelastic” price point due to the legal status. Supply has to rise tenfold to have the same effect as with normal products with a prohibited product.
Once growers, distributors, and retailers can be licensed, the supply/demand will influence price in an elastic fashion, even with a tax. I would estimate the lowest a price can fall to is the wholesale price being equal to the retail tax, or $50 per ounce. That is, distributors paying wholesalers $50 per ounce for a product that will retail for more than that amount. The lowest wholesale price currently (that little birdies have told me about) is $150 per ounce. Twenty years ago, it was $250 and up. Adjusted for inflation, the wholesale value of pot has already fallen to less than 1/3 of what it was, so what is another 1/3? Just grow ten times as much, problem solved.
Tom,
Don’t you have some fear to go monger?
Mr. Nice,
That’s an awfully optimistic theory. I think a more likely theory is that the price will drop like that of any commodity, to the approximate cost of production plus enough markup to get people willing to invest in the business. I doubt that’s $50 per ounce.
Humboldt may be able to establish some boutique brands, but I think the days of new 4runners every year will be gone until you can get the feds to offer price supports. I wish you luck (honest).
I toldya you guys like 4 runners!
I was taking you at your word, .Miss.
I figure some other similar specialty herbs go for $30 / ounce, I don’t see why high-grade cannabis would not wholesale for that or more.
I wish I had more time to play over here……
Here’s a headline for you
LOCAL POT GROWERS IN PANIC
HUMBOLDT CO: Apr 15th 2012 Local pot farmers were shocked to discover today that the Obama /Democrat Health Care Reform bill passed in March 2010 now requires them to identify income for the purpose of determing their compliance or eligibility for fines under the act.
The Department of Internal Revenue, is required to substantiate income and requiring individuals claiming unemployed status to justify their monthly expenditures. Those not claiming income required to present verified documentation for basic living expenses.
Provisions under the act allows the IRS to seize bank accounts and transaction records during the review process as well Speaking for the agency Milton Fiztwattle related “ sure we had problems tracking people before, but with these new police powers, we are especially looking at those not reporting any income….and Humboldt is full of them. Thanks to the Act, we now have 16,000 trained new agents. We are going to get our money and with our new Patriot..er…uh…Health Care Act , it’s going to be a snap”
RJR Tobacco attorneys have turned over to the Internal Revenue Service several thousand names and county parcel numbers uncovered during a private investigation of the county inflaming local Law Enforcement and county workers.
Federal agents from the Department of the Interior have set up a make shift station in the Eureka Federal courthouse and are scheduled to begin land seizures early next week.
Mr. Nice,
You know far more than I about what’s involved. When I think of specialty herbs, I picture stuff that’s hard to grow and imported from Kurjikistan by mule-train. When I picture pot, I picture a weed. Maybe a hydroponic, carefully cultured strain of weed, but still an easy-to-grow-as-wheat weed. If that’s insultingly off-base, I apologize.
Somebody will make money off of pot once it’s legalized, but I doubt it will be the growers. My bets would be on the advertisers and the twits that have spent their lives doing things like “brand identity clarification.”
As I’ve said many times, I think pot should be completely decriminalized, with no penalties for growing, distributing, selling or using amounts smaller than, what, ten pounds? But I think legalization will be a disaster for Humboldt’s economy — I have no expectation that Humboldt’s growers will be able to compete with the thugs and thieves working for RJ Reynolds etc…
Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if bulk specialty herbs are pretty inexpensive — I’d guess that most of the cost is in the distribution channel, things like putting it into tiny pretty bottles that have to be taken around to grocery stores. I’d bet the vast majority of your $30 per ounce is captured higher on the food chain than the farmers or collectors.
Damn Mitch, he did what you told him to do! And like all the right wing scare mongers, his lies are absurd to anyone with a brain.
The right wing is in a panic TODAY because shortly even the lowest wattage IQ’s will start waking up to the fact that none of their hysterical claims about health care reform were true and some of them might even realize that they can’t be trusted on any issue. There will always be a few who keep drinking at the well of ignorance, but it seems mostly just a ruse to hide their racism and other bigotries.
Small suggestion, Jane. Like so many discomforts, just ignore it and it will go away.
I think I remember you from the election, Plain Jane. You are the one who said anyone who voted for McCain was a racist. Or was that some other Plain Jane?
For sure. Most people have no idea beyond blowing smoke/vapor, drinking tea, eating goo balls, ‘cetera.
Uhhh, iss “Kyrgyzstan”
But hell naw, folks grow all kinna herbs all kinna ways. There are various growing techniques associated with herbs and forest gathered ones and whatnot. Quality and culture significantly affects price. You should see the price of this ginseng I buy, you’d think I was completely fucking stupid more than normal. But that shit is supposed to keep your jim hard until you’re 90 so I’m down with $500 here and there. I cop tea for $200 a zip too… but virgins pick that shit or Chinese prisoners or somebody.
High-grade cannabis is just as much a weed as clone-only hops strains are weeds. Try planting that shit without taking care of it and it will be bunk. Ditchweed is different, birds can farm that mess.
If it was not off base, there wouldn’t be so much booty bammer ass shit. This may come as a surprise, but most weed out there is fucking terrible.
So what would you rather cop, some fine Mendo wine grown from grapes in some co-op vineyards or Peter Vella?
Ten quintals should cover it.
Maybe cannabis will be safe to put in your body like it was before prohibition and it will all be worth it.
The price of dried food quality kitchen herbs at WinCo is around $15 A POUND ! Thats less than $1 per ounce. A lot of those dried herbs, like basil and oregeno are weeds, the processing they go through is similar to pot.
Most of the retail price of cigarettes is tax. Minus all taxes, the price of a pack of cigarettes is about $1. And those cigarettes go through considerable processing, much more complicated than pot. Even fancy pipe tobacco, which requires fairly extensive processing, retails for $40 A POUND, and that includes buku taxes.
Of course, legal pot won’t have the same economies of scale as basil or tobacco, at least initially. But a legal market promotes competition that illegal markets just don’t have. Prices and costs are much closer together in legal markets than illegal ones. And producers have incentive to use capital to continually lower production costs.
Its wishful thinking or denial to believe legal pot will sustainably wholesale for $50 an ounce. I’ll guess $4 an ounce wholesale is a better price target.
I doubt any local “growers” will be able earn significant income while competing in a legal market where scale and capital and distribution count the most, not secrecy and personal connections. They will choose to continue to sell illegally by undercutting the taxes. CAMP/HCDTF will simply be replaced by investigators from the Board of Equalization who have authority to levy and confiscate without warrant and the burden of proof is on the individual not the government.
Soze… because monocrop Burley tobacco sells cheap and bullshit conventional winco sulfur dioxide preserved herbs sell cheap, I should be able to get cheap everything? Shouldn’t fine wine be affected by the bullshit $5 wine at grocery outlet? What about olive oil, shouldn’t this competition be driving the price of olive oil down to a buck or some shit? I mean, safeway olive oil is processed with all kinna high tech machines, why would anyone buy hand-pressed oil from some dumbass specialty olive grove in Spain? Those people who buy that stuff just don’t understand markets like we do.
Trimming alone costs $200 to $250 a pound. Using the lower figure, that’s $12.50 an ounce. Yes there are machines now, but frankly they turn out shitty looking buds. So that’s $12.50 an ounce before you even begin to count other inputs, such as soil amendments, labor throughout the season and especially at harvest, and so on.
Sorry, NAN, $4 ounces are not in our future. I think Mr. Nice is close to the mark: prices will eventually stabilize just slightly above what it costs to grow good ganja in a reasonably efficient outdoor garden.
It will continue to be a profitable crop, especially in Humboldt because of our “brand,” but it will no longer be anywhere near as lucrative as it has been under Prohibition. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in favor of ending Prohibition.
Mr Nice, it all about the quantities. They have to sell that speciality olive oil all over the world to get enough volume. The amount of speciality foodstuff is minescule compared to the overall food market. To have any speciality food be profitable, total product demand has to be very large. HumCo higher price speciality food products like cheeses and cookies are profitable because they only need a small sliver of the cheese and cookie markets. All those businesses needed to sell nationally to retain profitability. If they tried to command a larger market share with their higher prices, like Humboldt Creamery tried, they would also fail. The legal California pot market just won’t be large enough for a small speciality product with a tiny market share to be profitable enough to suppoprt more than a few people. And remember, the competition will be statewide for that tiny sliver of market share.
Anonymous 8:34, you’re stuck in your own paradigm and in deep denial.
For example, you only know what trimming costs in an illegal market where secrecy and subterfuge add costs and limits the potential employee base. Open hiring and year round reliable employment in efficient facilities just isn’t a possiblity. If vegetables were grown under those conditions tomatoes would cost $50 an ounce too.
And the economics of what you consider to be a “good outdoor garden” is nothing like a truly efficient commercial legal farm that can attract investment capital at legal interest rates and terms without an “illegal risk” premium.
Spin it however you want now but you’ll be proven wrong almost immediately in a legal and open market.
As far a “brand”, legal pot will be a raw agricultural commodity like soybeans, oats, basil, and oregeno. Any “brand” will command only a small premium.
“Brand” name cigarettes sell for only slightly more than “generics”. Pot smokers don’t care to pay much more for a product that has a similar THC content anymore than cigarette smokers will pay much more for extra nicotine.
Legal pot won’t have brand pricing power like pharmaceuticals have. Drug patents give makers exclusivity and distribution is limited through doctors who have great influence on users and can be incentivized to prescribe a brand.
Like you ain’t gonna be able to find people to do that for hella cheap if they don’t have to be sworn to secrecy and shit. Could pay them with dosia. Packed in a van and shit. Mobile trim. Family “Tree” Service.
You’re goddamn right that is what the price will float down to. People ain’t gonna be fooled by no Dunhill Dosia, Marlboro Maui, Kamel Kush, Parliament Purps, or White Owl Widows. People ain’t that dumb, they know where good weed is grown and that place is Humboldt County and Mendocino County. Especially the customers in all these dry states that will be flooded with career California smugglers buying legal crystally ass weed here and driving straight out onto I-10 and making mad ducats wherever they stop fucking those Juarez folks out of all of their territory even if they kill more consulates… hypothetically.
Not A Native…
Alright. Hops is basically weed’s cousin. Ain’t no hop monopoly that excludes little ass hop growers from making ends. The reason is simple, hops has a subtle taste and is used in a drug concoction. Weed just happens to be a subtle tasting drug concoction on its own. Not that hops isn’t a drug in itself and guaranteed potency hops costs money.
The same people who smoke stress now will smoke Bugler Bammer when it is legal.
Another factor is a lot of their customers (or customers of customers) will be growing their own stash in the backyard , at least in California, without the legal risks as well as reduced danger from rip offs. How much pot can you grow in a 25 square foot space, one or two crops a year?
If it was legal, the only reason anyone would grow pot indoors in 25 square feet would be as a hobby.
I don’t buy the “taste” argument, Mr. Nice. Thats a myth created by the mystique of using a contraband product. People made up similar myths about the tastes of bootleg liquor during prohibition. After prohibition, demand for the “taste” of bootleg completely went away.
Stoners want a high, and that comes from the active ingredients. And anyway, once its legal and cheap, smoking won’t be a popular way to injest pot. Coughing your lungs out isn’t something to choose when you’ve got legal alternatives to avoid discomfort and bronchitis. I can imagine pot chewing gum and smokeless hash oil products that have a kick but little taste.
Like vegetables, bread, beer, cigarettes, wine and booze, even after taxes pot will be cheaper, easier, and more reliable to buy in a store, like 99.9% of people do.
When pot is legal, a small quantity user also won’t have the allure of illicit growing, bragging rights, or making any profit.
I forgot that NAN thinks he knows everything, even about things NAN knows nothing about. Well, I’m looking forward to the $4/ounce buds. We’ll see.
With Prop 215, it seems that it is not terribly difficult to get a doctor’s recommendation, as many thoussands of CA residents have already done. For all of these folks, pot is already legal under California law. With the feds backing off the dispensaries, there are no law enforcement agcencies left who are tasked with targeting 215 grows or dispensaries or users. The prices have dropped significantly over the past decade as the effects of this quasi-legalization have increased the supply of high-quality buds dramatically. I predict a continued decline, ending up somewhere in the range of $400 to $5
…range of $400 to $500 per lb ($35 to $50 an ounce). Yes, the growers/producers will be able to get cheaper trimmers, but in addition to the hefty taxes that are being proposed on the ganja itself (probably more $4/ounce right there), the producers will also have to pay for payroll taxes, unemployment insurance, worker’s comp, etc. And just wait ’til the Amalgamated Brotherandsisterhood of Cannabis Manicurists Local 420 starts to push for fringe benefits, a retirement plan, etc.
$4 per ounce ganja is nothing but a “pipe dream.”
Hashish, on the other hand, can be from produced hardy, good-yielding but less “fancy” strains, and with the end of Prohibition, it could be produced with much greater mechanization, and therefore hashish and hash products could soon be cheaper than buds.
By the way, there may also be developing a market for the fresh greens, which provide lots of the CBDs with less of the THC. For certain conditions, it’s the CBDs you want, with the THC just a side effect, welcome to some, disliked by others. I think Humboldt might want to get out in front of the pack on that market. If you’re eating fresh greens, you surely won’t want pesticide-laced agribusiness-style product.
For that matter, why would anyone want to smoke, vaporize, or cook with pyrethroid-laced chemical-fertilizer-boosted buds when they can get the same benefits from outdoor organic buds raised from sun and soil?
Hmmmm, Cypress Farms Green Haze Chevre or Humboldt Creamery organic pot butter?
Interesting discussion, and I enjoy both of my older brother’s personas. For an excellent example of voice-hopping that doesn’t IMO lapse badly into stereotypes, I’d recommend “Let the Great World Spin,” by Colum McCann. Fantastic book, too, or should that be fantastic-assed book?
I wonder why anyone would think the Humboldt brand will be used primarily by Humboldt growers? Unless the BoS or California goes for appellation controlee, “Heavenly Humboldt” (TM) will probably be produced in the mid-west and owned by Nabisco. They might open a cafe in Arcata or Garberville, for PR use. And if by a miracle the Humboldt name could actually be controlled, Nabisco would sell “Heavenly HumBOLT!” (TM).
Oh, apologies to anyone from Kyrgyzstan.
That might be true if other states legalize it, Mitch, but at this point California will have the monopoly and products can’t be shipped across state lines – that’s when federal laws apply.
Oops. I don’t suppose I could get away with “midwestern California”?
Uh, like wow man, does anyone know how the !@#$%^& meeting went.
Scroll up — the post has been updated with links to reports from the event.
Almost 200 people sat around a dozen tables labeled ’215′, ‘government’, ‘business’, etc. General recognition that building the Humboldt brand would require government cooperation with a homegrowers association that markets our strengths: organic, outdoor, groovy, healthy, happy buds. A handful of indoor growers disagreed–it was a genuinely diverse and stimulating open discussion, with people palpably excited to finally get under way.
A million devilish details were tossed around, and Supe Mark Lovelace and Mike Wilson (of the Harbor District board) expiated knowledgeably on how slowly and timidly the government will follow behind people who lead it to the easiest thing for government to do. Not exactly inspirational, but interesting.
KMUD will have recorded highlights and discussion this Thursday evening from 8 to 10. It was a great beginning, of God knows what.
Corp/gov will be the ONLY ones allowed to produce, unless you pay to license their genetics. They will operate the sales, not small business- they will not open their labor camps and release pow’s, nor will they forgo restitution paid to the state for crimes of weed.
The corp/gov is taking over this business and there will be no room for small farmers. Heck, with the federal animal farm id act being a small farmer will be illegal or the taxes will be so high as the numbers won’t jive.
Sadly mistaken if you think a group of poseur rednecks can compete with the CIA for money in a market they will SOON own.
Heirloom seeds are illegal in Iraq- yet somehow you all think you’ll get better treatment? wake up- government is going to crush you like a two spotted spider mite.
Anonymous, our guesses are closer than you think. My estimate of $4 an ounce was for the wholesale price, before taxes. You seem focused on the retail price. The tax rate is TBD.
The proposition doesn’t supercede 215 so I’m guessing that both 215 and “legal pot” will be sold. The excise tax won’t apply to 215 pot so that would limit the tax rate so people don’t just buy cheaper 215, considering the costs and hassle of getting a “recommendation” and joining a “dispensary”.
Ultimately, the same farms will supply both markets. For people with genuine medical needs, there may well be a speciality higher priced market. But we all know, there aren’t very many people in that category. My guess is that the market for 215 pot will quickly dry up along with the theraputic pot hyperbole, just like the demand for “nerve calming” prescription “medicines”, largely containing alcohol, went away after prohibition.
In any event, the costs of production and profit margins on legal pot will resemble other agricultural commodity products. You know, even great wine grapes sell for just hundreds of dollars a ton, and yes vineyard owners sometimes guard against theft.
My current guess is the proposition won’t pass in Novemeber because it seems the California electorate is less tolerant of change, as the recent prop 8 vote showed. If so, it would be bad for HumCo but good for Cali.
Check out last Saturday’s T-S which reported a bust down near Blythe. “A search of the semi revealed about $580 pounds of marijuana hidden inside the truck’s sleeping area. Authorities say the drug had an estimated street value of $464,000.” Works out to exactly $50 per oz. Correct my math if I’m wrong,
OK, I’ve made my prediction: $35-$50 an ounce.
We have NAN’s prediction: $4 an ounce.
In time, we’ll see what actually happens.
$35 to $50 an ounce might severely squeeze the indoor growers, it would push them up against their cost of production I would think.
have a peaceful day,
Bill
So anon, you predicting $35-$50 an ounce retail price? I’d say that might be close, making a big guess on tax rates. Wholesale price target is $4.
If the proposition passes, the prices should stabilize within about 2 years for efficient producers to dominate the market. I think Bill has honestly pointed out the big elephant thats causing all the local handwringing.
Sure, it’ll be $4 for an ounce of boo boo bammer. It’s barely $30 an ounce for that shit as it is. Maybe when it is legal, you won’t have to pick out the burro hair.
NAN, since you seem to think you know about this, tell me what goes into hops, wine grape, and cannabis production. What is the difference in inputs/labor for variables like organic, cloned vs. open pollinated varieties, and geographic location?
Even riddle me how much per acre yield broccoli gets, how much goes into that per year on average, and why the price fluctuates from sub-dollar to $3-$5 / lbs depending on factors.
And if people didn’t give a fuck about taste as you say, why do cigars exist? Why does fine wine exist? Why are there microbrews? If everyone were just chasing the effect, you’d think all those average people buying $50 cigars and $100 bottles of wine should be just mainlining nicotine and chasing it with everclear.
NAN seems to be motivated on this issue by bitterness, jealousy, and a wish to gloat about the downfall of the grower economy. That gloating may be justified in the future, but it’s a bit premature at this point.
The outdoor growers may benefit more from legalization than indoor growers because it is easier for most outdoor grows to increase production to offset somewhat lower prices. Outdoors this can be done more cheaply because sunshine doesn’t cost like electricity.
The price may not fall right away because you will have the situation where marijuana production will be legal here but with a huge market in the rest of the U.S. The market for (legal in Cali) bud will be huge for a while. You need to get FedEx or UPS on board (or start your own parcel company), they think they are government agents. The only issue is reliable delivery outside of California.
Eventually there will be an export market for Humboldt bud, well there is already but I mean a quasi legal one.
have a peaceful day,
Bill
Okay, even conceding that crap weed is likely to go for a couple bucks, how much demand for booty weed will there be? I predict none.
Holland has semi-legal weed. 5 plants is not even considered a crime there… they could be any other house plant for all the cops care. In Holland, you can buy weed at the bar, but the price never falls below $25/eighth for regs (and their regs are wack, trust me). Seeds can be bought at the seed store. Swiss seed producers do 25,000 plant test grows (I’ve spoken with an individual who was part of such a company) and offload that product onto the Dutch market, yet seeds still go for $5-$10 each in Holland.
It may be that cannabis’ smart money in the future will be in hybrid clones and seeds as opposed to raw product. This is the case with other things I mentioned like grape grafts and hop setts. Even so, there will be demand for quality.
Consider the constant shortage of good quality hops at the brew stores. That commercial crap hops is way cheaper but sits on the shelf gathering dust. Why would it be different for cannabis which has practically identical climate requirements?
Even if the price drops, Humboldt is still in the dank belt. Just like you’re probably better off raising Broccoli in Salinas than Arcata, you’re better off growing dosia in Briceland than Fresno.
Mr. Nice, have you trademarked the Dank Belt appellation? Who knew we have an atmospheric terroir to work with?
By the way, and with your omniscience ‘n shit, can you tell me why an indoorsman at the pot forum took offense at the suggestion that indoor weed is generic? His umbrage suggested there’s a distinct indoor Humboldt brand recognized by the morons of the marketplace (who pay more for indoor). Please, what’s the straight skinny?
There is not really a distinct indoor Humboldt brand. Nobody gives a fuck about that. A good sales pitch is “This is outdoor organic original ’80s SoHum Purps grown in the loving climate of Whitethorn, CA.” A bad sales pitch is “This is some O.G. Kush grown in a twenty banger grow house powered by some diesel generators hidden in a creek and guarded by pitbulls… in Humboldt”
So naw, fuck indoor. I’ve had indoor in Wyoming that was way better than Humboldt brand indoor.
And no, I have not trademarked Dank Belt Farms or anything. Search the gov site, nothing marijuana-related is trademarked thus far.
In fact, generally outside the confines of Humboldt, people associate “Humboldt” with well-formed purplish outdoor buds. People don’t even believe you if you say it is from Humboldt and it looks like some indoor weed. Especially if it is some type of dense indica skunk strain as opposed to a tall-growing mountain sativa strain. Humboldt greenhouse grown may have some following, but that indoor person who took offense is just kidding themself.
Look, the fundamental economic transformation is the difference between a clandestine black market where secrecy, not efficiency is most important and an open market where entry is unlimited, transactions have legal protection, huge economies of scale are possible, and market demand and distribution channels are predictable and stable.
I’ll repeat my certainty that pot isn’t comparable to high end wine, olive oil, or any other consumption product whose primary appeal comes during the act of using it. Pot is a drug. The medicinal analogy, is closer to understand pot use. Taste has a small influence on choosing medicine.
The primary appeal of pot is the effects that occur after it is used, not during its use. Of course, repeated use is needed to sustain the effects so the use itself shouldn’t be too unpleasant. You know, I’ve heard people say that heavy coughing while using pot is good because that gives a stronger effect. Well, my opinion is they’re nuts and represent a marginal few who are really seeking to promote a “pot culture” for other reasons. But if pot becomes legal, any appeal it has as contraband or power to be the focus of an “alternative to mainstream culture” will quickly vanish.
As far as legal pricing, this Sac Bee item quotes a local grower who sounds like he comments here. It also mentions the Garberville meeting, though misstating where SoHum pot is distributed . Lots of opinions, I stand by mine.
And you know, high priced cigars are a different because they’re status symbols. US demand for expensive cigars fluctuates with political trends. High end cigar use is now way down as the economy has weakened and its less “cool” to brag about using them Overall, cigar use has been falling for decades as other status symbols arose and smoking has become seen as unhealthy.
Thanks for the dope.
btw Dennis Peron thinks the market just wants to get wasted, and could care less where it comes from. Seems like we’ll drive ourselves upscale even if we’d rather not deal with stoner yuppies. (Stuppies?)
Is Stuppies your creation, Longwind? I like it!
“It may be that cannabis’ smart money in the future will be in hybrid clones and seeds as opposed to raw product.”
At long last, my biology degree may have value.
A biology degree always has value, just not always a monetary value. If I were just graduating high school biology is what I would study. “The Lives of a Cell” should be required reading in 9th grade biology classes.
The Lives of a Cell should be required reading, period.
Lewis Thomas should be studied in high school English, right after Strunk and White.
Stuppie Farms in the heart of the Dank Belt…
NAN, why do you think you know anything about weed? Taste does matter. So does how smooth it is. So does how it looks. So does where it comes from.
Designer strains aren’t always more potent. Take that old school Blueberry strain for example. That’s not the most potent strain in the world nor does it have a high yield. Yet, the shit flies off the shelf (or backpack or teenager’s back pocket or whatever). Why? It’s great. It tastes good, is real smooth, and looks pretty. That’s the type of shit people care about. Don’t fool yourself into thinking your complete and utter inexperience in this regard can be made up for with some seemingly logical conjecture. If it was about potency, everybody would just guzzle hash oil or some shit. The fact remains that people like good ass weed in the same way as wine.
There are all kinds of different taste characteristics one can taste in weed beyond if it tastes like fish or dirt or whatever. There are the berry varieties, grapey, redwood duffish, cedar-like, skunky, hashy, rose hippy, diesely… Some are hard to describe like the way Snowcap tastes. Kinda minty but yet uhh… Snowcappy?
Not that I’m some type of weed tasting expert or anything.
If no one has started a pot connoisseurs’ blog, Mr. Nice sounds like he could do it despite his protestations to the contrary.
Mr. Nice said: “NAN, why do you think you know anything about weed? …Don’t fool yourself into thinking your complete and utter inexperience in this regard can be made up for with some seemingly logical conjecture.”
But Mr. Nice, that’s NAN’s default mode: factual ignorance accompanied by strong opinion, expressed as “seemingly logical conjecture.”
If NAN only commented on matters that NAN had some knowledge and understanding of, we’d rarely hear from NAN.
Sorry folks, its not about me. Its really clear that if you had any confidence that taste really mattered, this thread wouldn’t exist in the first place.
What’s got your knickers in a bunch is the prospect that legalization will wipe out the phony facade about pot and result in its being another commodity ag product. And thats where all your fear and loathing here is coming from.
Well, the good news is that we’re not talking about the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin, we’re talking about the future, and we’ll get to see what happens. If, a few years after legalization, Humboldt’s ganja economy has melted down, buds are wholesaling for $4/ounce and most pot smokers stop caring about taste, smell, variety, and where the buds were grown, then we’ll have to say NAN was right. We’ll see.
One place I think that NAN and I agree is that the legalization initiative probably won’t pass this fall.
I think we’re still a couple of years away from that goal, and if so we’ll have a couple more years of prognosticating and counter-prognosticating. Oh goody.
I’d rather see the initiative passed this year (its just the right thing to do) but from the point of view of Humboldt’s cash crop economy, it may actually be beneficial to have a couple more years to plan for the transition.
Meanwhile, the prices continue to gradually drop, moving us closer to where they will eventually end up after legalization. The final price drop would come when (or if) legalization happens at the Federal level, which I think will be at least a decade away.
Personally, I’m going to vote for it, despite its weaknesses. I’d like it to pass. If it does, it will be good for HumCo overall.
Its interesting that all the announced candidates for governor are opposed. I bet local candidates for office will avoid taking any position on it.
I bet not. Go ahead and ask. It should and will be an issue in all races.
I’m not saying that good tasting weed can’t be grown elsewhere like Hawaii, Tennessee, Panama, or other dank belt climate zones.
The only reason the taste discussion started is because you went and said taste doesn’t matter when it comes to marijuana. You are as wrong as can possibly be about taste. It did trigger fond memories of some tastes tho, so thanx.
I don’t have any fear and loathing about pot becoming a commodity ag product. I welcome that. All this fake trash money from the current black market cottage industry situation should be replaced by real growth to gain real economic benefits. I think the Emerald Triangle folks are a hardscrabble enough bunch to figure it out. It wouldn’t be the first time the primary industry was drastically changed.
Besides, if we don’t do something, the drug trafficking organizations are eventually going to get too big to fail.
Well, apparently NAN and I will both be voting for the initiative, though NAN is at the same time arguing against legalization on the “Voters” thread. I find that a bit puzzling, but no matter, it’s the vote that counts!
By the way, I agree that if it passes, it will be good for Humboldt, at least in the long run. A lot of the dysfunction that is caused by Prohibition (indoor commercial residential grows, home invasions, poor use of law enforcement resources, etc.) would be eliminated. So would huge, relatively easy profits from blackmarket ganja. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a trade-off that will be well worth it.
Anonymous and I both want to see HumCo freed from the dysfunctions that black market pot profits have created. But we really don’t agree on what those dysfunctions(excessive mental illness, neglectful parenting, outlaw mentality, low esteem for educational attainment, political cynicism, lack of respect for rule of law) are.
I agree that Prohibition, and the black market it creates, causes a lot of problems. We may not agree on what all of those problems are. Of course I agree that Prohibition creates an outlaw mentality and contributes to political cynicism.
But I really don’t think that either pot or “black market pot profits” create mental illness, neglectful parenting, low esteem for education. Plenty of people not involved with pot or pot profits have these same problems, and I’ve seen no evidence that those who are involved with pot or pot profits are more likely than others to have these problems.
I’m most concerned about the violence that results from the existance of a black market: The home invasions, robberies and burglaries, by perps who are looking for ganja and hope that the victims will be afraid to turn to law enforcement for help.
Anyway, whether we agree on these points or not, it sounds like we’ll both be voting for legalization this fall. Who knows, maybe it WILL pass!
What, are you prejudiced against crazy people? That’s fucked up dude.
Kids here seem to turn out alright. I don’t think once pot is worth nothing and there are more poor folks that any child neglect problems will suddenly be resolved.
If Humboldt’s pot growing outlaw mentality is so rough, try moving in next to the artichoke fields and see what outlaw mentality is really all about.
Oh aren’t you just Professor Smarty Pants
I have no respect for laws on weed, prostitution, gay marriage, polygamy, coca, peyote, naked short selling, gambling, mushrooms, immigration, guns, donation caps, or taxes.
“Naked short selling” is a provocative sounding name for theft.
Plenty of violence is associated with people not involved with pot, but that doesn’t excuse the additional violence of black market pot or make it less important. Similarily, the fact that there are dysfunctional people not involved with pot doesn’t excuse the additional dysfunctional people whose situation is related to pot.
I’ve seen many instances of mental illness due to or exacerbated by pot use, especially involving an illegal sub-culture of secrecy and denial that resists mental health treatments. I’ve also seen parents who choose to be more concerned with pot and associated clandestine activities than their children’s desires, ambitions, and development. I’d call that child neglect.
What’s after pot? How about legalizing ecstacy? ha. not.
Well it appears that innovation and creativity in the pot biz is happening elsewhere. “You look at all the marijuana products out there, and they are so mom-and-pop, hippie-dippy and rinky-dink”
Problem is, HumCo growers are users of their product and therefore unable to differentiate good ideas from the spacey ones, or act on them with persistence.