Home > Uncategorized > Does Obama have it in the Bag?

Does Obama have it in the Bag?

No, although Republican leaders are clearly worried about it, which is why they’re already pushing a narrative that Hurricane Sandy and the imperative for national unity, rather than a political mandate is what will hand him the win.  And Romney is trying for Pennsylvania because of some movement in the polls, even appearing there today.  If he can pull that off then he could, in theory, win without Ohio.

And according to one report I’ve seen, Obama’s early turnout numbers in Ohio aren’t as great as they were in 2008, when he won by a very narrow margin.

Nate Silver addresses both.

There has been very subtle but effective early voter suppression by Republicans in office in Ohio and Florida, where there are already mass lines with hours of waiting and much confusion, particularly in Democratic-heavy counties.  I think it will be enough to turn Florida for Romney.  I don’t think it’ll be enough in Ohio, particularly in the Toledo area where Obama is revered for saving the auto-industry and Romney is facing a backlash for his Jeep-to-China ad which generated press statements from both GM and Chrysler calling Romney a liar.

The photo above depicts a small portion of a line of early voters in Cleveland which is five blocks long.  That’s the image Obama wants to see.  Don’t expect any favors from the state’s Republican Attorney General who already tried to block what his office termed, “the African American Turnout Machine” appealing the court order against his cessation of early voting all the way to the Supreme Court.

Nate Silver is angering the pundits because he’s contradicted their whole narrative of Romney momentum and their reliance upon polling which doesn’t give Obama many battleground state leads over 5 percent.  His regression analysis is basically giving Obama an 80 percent chance of winning – which would make a huge branch of the press corps look like idiots, including people like Chuck Todd and Cokie Roberts.  They wouldn’t be angry with him if they thought he was wrong about everything from his rejection of Gallup as an outlier to his Ohio and Virginia projections where the consensus is that “we just don’t know.”

Either he or they will lose a great deal of capital on Tuesday.

TPM’s poll tracker is giving Obama the likelihood of 303 electoral college votes.  He needs 270.  You can click on each state to see the recent polling breakdowns.  Pew has him ahead by 3 points in the popular vote.  The tracking polls mostly give him a one or two point lead.  If you look at Ohio, you have one Republican pollster indicating a tie.  But Rasmussen and Gravis give Obama significant leads.  It’s hard to see how Romney wins Ohio, unless everybody is off.

  1. A pesky fact
    November 4, 2012 at 6:34 pm

    Nope.

    Romney gets 317 or 323, and it’s over before polls close here. There are some core problems with Silver’s number crunching (well discussed on the web in various spots), all of which are irrelevant to the fact that Obama loses in the Midwest this time around.

    Senate is going to be the more interesting spot this time around. Oddly enough (hilariously enough?) I think Akin wins. AirClaire is deeply unpopular, and R is +15 in Missouri any way poll the masses. I think that his coattails will be enough to pull Akin to victory. Which I think should make everyone happy in some way, because fuck Mitch McConnel and the RNSC.

    I think Senate remains Dem by 1. Reid is also a deeply unpopular leader, and between tmwr and the inauguration there may be a few key Dem senators entertaining some very pretty cabinet positions.

    GOP picks up 4-6 in the house. Pelosi is finally removed from her leadership position.

  2. November 4, 2012 at 6:47 pm

    pesky,

    Congrats for being willing to put your predictions up before election day.

    I’d say Obama wins the popular vote by 1%, and the electoral college by a substantial number. It wouldn’t shock me if Romney doesn’t concede on election night.

    In my fantasies, Obama decides there is no further point in compromising with Republicans, and pushes the “radical left” agenda they’re all terrified about. (You know, single payer health care, regulations on banks, government programs to limit childhood hunger…) But I suspect Obama will make a dignified and conciliatory renewed call for working together, and will continue to bend over backward to include GOP candy in everything he does.

  3. Anonymous
    November 4, 2012 at 6:50 pm

    If Romney wins Ohio, it will underscore how utterly clueless the electorate is… or… how utterly selfless the electorate is that they’d vote for a president who would have crippled their state economy by letting the American automobile industry implode.

  4. Ponder z
    November 4, 2012 at 7:00 pm

    Mitch, when you are proven wrong and dont admit it, will you start or join the election fraud conspiracy of 2012?

  5. November 4, 2012 at 7:04 pm

    Sure, Ponder. Happy to.

  6. A pesky fact
    November 4, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    Here is how to evaluate Ohio and PA like real pros.

    Ask yourself will O get the Dem turnout he got in 08? No one is saying he’ll exceed that turnout. So, does he match it? Ehh. Not likely. Polling using 08 turnout modeling puts R and O in a dead heat.

    So, ask yourself. With 10-13% of O voters indicating they’ll defect this year, independents skewing to R by 10-13%, an Obama base less enthused about this election, and an R base that would crawl through cactus fields to vote, what are Obamas real chances? In Ohio? And PA?

    Zero. The numbers just aren’t there.

    Depending on the outcome, we may see the Dems go from supermajorities in both houses and the presidency to losing all of them in 4 years. Blame the voters all you want for their being “stupid.”. It’s everyone else’s fault, obviously.

  7. Plain Jane
    November 4, 2012 at 7:17 pm

    I’m really looking forward to Pesky’s explanation of Romney’s loss on Wednesday.

  8. Load Me Another
    November 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm

    No, O is In the bag and R is tossing it out with the garbage. O’s now throwing around the idea of a “secretary of business”- incredibly absurd, talk about grabbing at straws. After O’s defeat, the whining will be: voter disenfranchisement, fraud, racism, and the FrankenStorm, Sandy. Whine Whine Whippy Whippy.

  9. A pesky fact
    November 4, 2012 at 7:34 pm

    PJ,

    Don’t forget to post your prediction before polls open!

    If Mittens loses it will be because more people voted for Obama when they went in the polling both, not that complicated.

    My entire argument was about voter turnout and why I think it will go a certain way in key states.

  10. Ponder z
    November 4, 2012 at 7:43 pm

    “crawl through cactus fields to vote”
    Hell yea, even after two viagra.

  11. Eric Kirk
    November 4, 2012 at 8:30 pm

    The suppression efforts in Florida and Ohio are reminiscent of banana republic power plays, but the huge lines are encouraging, as if the Democratic constituency is pretty determined not to let the election be stolen that way. There may be lots of lawsuits, but I actually lean towards Nate Silver’s analysis, especially because I think the likely voter models are becoming less relevant as are polls which don’t account for cell phone use. The margins could actually be two or three points larger for Obama.

    My prediction is that Obama wins all of the battleground states with the exception of Florida which i believe that Governor Scott’s suppression efforts have already won it for Romney, North Carolina, and Colorado. I think Obama will win a blowout in Wisconsin, and I think that the Pennsylvania difference is going to be seven or eight points. Obama will win Ohio by about 6 percent. He’s over 50 percent in about half the polls, and 49 in most others. Unless the Republican-generated long lines turn away a significant number of Obama’s voters, it’s hard to see how he loses Ohio.

    And that’s 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 235. Final prediction.

    But, I could be wrong. We’ll know in 48 hours.

  12. Eric Kirk
    November 4, 2012 at 8:38 pm

    Here’s some indication that the Republican internals don’t have them quite so confident as they’re talking.

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/republicans-romney-hurricane-sandy.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

  13. Plain Jane
    November 4, 2012 at 8:43 pm

    Have any of them said Hurricane Sandy is god’s message that he doesn’t want Romney to be president? ;>)

  14. Eric Kirk
    November 4, 2012 at 8:46 pm

    Plain Jane :

    Have any of them said Hurricane Sandy is god’s message that he doesn’t want Romney to be president? ;>)

    That thought crossed my mind. Unfortunately, there’s only been the usual blaming it on gays.

    Meanwhile, here’s all the polling data out today.

    NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

    NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 49, Romney 49 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 48 (RV)

    NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 42(RV)

    NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama 48, Romney 47

    NATIONAL (Pew): Obama 48, Romney 45 (Obama 50, Romney 47 with undecideds allocated)

    NATIONAL (Politico/GWU Battleground): Obama 48, Romney 48

    NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47

    NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48

    NATIONAL (USA Today/Gallup): Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV only)

    NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 47

    ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 46

    ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

    CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 40

    COLORADO (Ipsos-Reuters): Romney 48, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

    COLORADO (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

    CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 39

    FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)

    FLORIDA (Mellman Group for Americans United For Change): Obama 47, Romney 45

    FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)

    FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 45

    FLORIDA (YouGov): Romney 48, Obama 47

    GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

    ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 38

    INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 51, Obama 44

    IOWA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

    IOWA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

    IOWA (Des Moines Register): Obama 47, Romney 42

    IOWA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 47, Romney 44

    MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 49, Romney 42

    MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 37

    MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Obama 57, Romney 37

    MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama 58, Romney 40

    MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 37

    MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Romney 47, Obama 46

    MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

    MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

    MINNESOTA (NMB Research–R): Romney 46, Obama 45

    MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45

    MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 43

    MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 45

    MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 42

    MONTANA (Mason Dixon): Romney 53, Obama 43

    MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 45

    MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney 53, Obama 43

    NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 45

    NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

    NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 48, Romney 48

    NEW HAMPSHIRE (YouGov): Obama 47, Romney 43

    NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 41

    NEW MEXICO (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Obama 49, Romney 41, Johnson 6

    NEW MEXICO (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 43

    NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 36

    NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 47

    OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Obama 50, Romney 48

    OHIO (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 49, Romney 45

    OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 41 (RV)

    OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)

    OHIO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 47

    OHIO (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 46

    PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama 49, Romney 46

    PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

    PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research–R): Obama 47, Romney 47

    PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44

    TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 42

    TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 57, Obama 38

    VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

    VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

    VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 46

    WASHINGTON (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 46

    WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 40

    WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 42

    WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 48

    WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

    DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

    AZ-SEN (PPP): Jeff Flake (R) 51, Richard Carmona (D) 46

    AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 42

    CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 56, Elizabeth Emken (R) 39

    CT-SEN (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 44

    FL-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 54, Connie Mack IV (R) 39 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 55, Connie Mack IV (R) 34 (RV)

    FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 43

    FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 43 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 42 (RV)

    FL-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 44

    IN-SEN (YouGov): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 45

    ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 49, Charlie Summers (R) 33, Cynthia Dill (D) 11

    MD-SEN (YouGov): Ben Cardin (D) 57, Daniel Bongino (R) 34

    MA-SEN (Univ of Mass-Lowell): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 48

    MA-SEN (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46

    MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 43

    MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43

    MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40

    MI-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 41

    MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 62, Kurt Bills (R) 32

    MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 32

    MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 48, Todd Akin (R) 44, Jonathan Dine (L) 6

    MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 52, Todd Akin (R) 42

    MT-SEN (Mason Dixon): Denny Rehberg (R) 49, Jon Tester (D) 45

    MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46, Dan Cox (L) 4

    NV-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 49, Shelley Berkley (D) 40

    NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 51, Joe Kyrillos (R) 36

    NM-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 46, Heather Wilson (R) 46, Jon Barrie (IAP) 3

    NM-SEN (YouGov): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 43

    NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 61, Wendy Long (R) 29

    OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 45

    OH-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 42 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39 (RV)

    OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 45 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44 (RV)

    OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 54, Josh Mandel (R) 44

    OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 48

    OH-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 46

    PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 42

    PA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 44

    PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research–R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 45

    PA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 50, Tom Smith (R) 42

    TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 62, Mark Clayton (D) 29

    TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 57, Paul Sadler (D) 36

    VA-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Tim Kaine (D) 48, George Allen (R) 46 (LV); Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 42 (RV)

    VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 46

    VA-SEN (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46

    WA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57, Michael Baumgartner (R) 39

    WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 56, Michael Baumgartner (R) 38

    WI-SEN (PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 51, Tommy Thompson (R) 48

    WI-SEN (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47

    MO-GOV (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 53, Dave Spence (R) 45

    MT-GOV (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 48, Rick Hill (R) 48, Ron Vandeventer (L) 2

    NH-GOV (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 47

    NH-GOV (Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 42, Others 3

    WA-GOV (PPP): Jay Inslee (D) 50, Rob McKenna (R) 48

    ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 56, Jon Courtney (R) 37

    ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 55, Kevin Raye (R) 36

    MT-AL (Mason Dixon): Steve Daines (R) 51, Kim Gillan (D) 40

    MT-AL (PPP): Steve Daines (R) 48, Kim Gillan (D) 44, Dave Kaiser (L) 3

    NY-24 (Siena): Dan Maffei (D) 44, Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 44, Ursula Rozum (G) 8

    NY-27 (Siena): Chris Collins (R) 48, Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) 47

    UT-04 (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love (R) 48, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 43

  15. High Finance
    November 4, 2012 at 9:03 pm

    Romney wins the popular vote by 2-3% and wins about 300 in the Electoral College.

    PJ, Mitch, Eric, Moviedad and the usual suspects here start crying fraud & corruption by Wednesday morning.

  16. Eric Kirk
    November 4, 2012 at 9:14 pm

    Senate Predictions – close races only:

    Nevada – Dean Heller (R) wins

    New Mex – Martin Heinrich (D) wins

    Montana – really close to call, but Tester (D) has been inches ahead for months and the voters like him. Calling it for him.

    North Dakota – Berg (R) wins. Heitcamp has run a spirited campaign, but I just don’t see ND sending a Democrat this time around no matter what the polls say.

    Wisconsin – Tommy Thompson (R) wins. Tammy Baldwin gave it a good try, but Wisconsin loves Thompson. I could be misreading this one big time however, as a friend in Wisconsin almost convinced me.

    Missouri – McCaskill (D), despite all the late secret money Republicans have dumped into the state in a desperate attempt to save Akin.

    Indiana – Donnelly (D). Mourdock’s stupid rape comment turned it around permanently.

    Ohio – Brown (D) seems to have it under control in the latest polls.

    Pennsylvania – Casey (D)

    Massachusetts – Warren (D) pulled well ahead a month ago, and hasn’t looked back.

    Connecticut – Murphy (D) is almost to double digit leads, even with the McMahan campaign putting up door hangers which endorse her and Obama.

    Maine – King (I) who will probably caucus with Democrats. At least the Democratic voters think so.

    Virginia – Kaine (D) – haven’t seen a poll with Allen ahead since August.

    Florida – Nelson (D) – Mack really ran a poor campaign.

    Assuming King caucuses with the Democrats, that’s a 54 to 46 lead. If these results hold up, but Baldwin wins in Wisconsin, I would say that amounts to a mandate.

  17. Thorstein Veblen
    November 4, 2012 at 9:21 pm

    I predict Feinstein and pelosi re-up. The rest, I dunno, I think there is a real effort to make the polls appear unreliable. So any outcome is possible. And defensible. To enough people. Nothing is beyond possibility.

  18. Eric Kirk
    November 4, 2012 at 9:25 pm

    Some hope in North Carolina, where Obama has another great ground game, but it’s a very tall order.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/04/1155592/-African-American-turnout-in-NC

  19. Eric Kirk
  20. Just Watchin
    November 5, 2012 at 5:22 am

    I stood in a Florida line for two hours last Monday to vote, and the reason was the eleven amendments that were on the ballot. They were written like a bunch of lawyers got together and worded them so that “regular” people didn’t have a chance of understanding them. Sample ballots were sent out to study and use as a “cheat sheet” once inside the booth, but it seemed that few people studied them, and they were trying to read them for the first time and make sense of them inside the booth. There were reports of people taking 30 minutes or more to cast their ballots.

  21. A pesky fact
    November 5, 2012 at 5:33 am

    Here is what, imho, the swing states come down to. Shamelessly swiped from ace.mu.nu

    O+0.05% – Current RCP Average
    O+0.76% – Average using the 2008 turnout model
    R+2.02% – Average using the D+3 turnout model
    R+4.26% – Average using the 2010 turnout model
    R+4.30% – Average using the 2004 turnout model
    R+6.04% – Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

  22. November 5, 2012 at 7:06 am

    Eric,

    Obama is not Gore and he will be President during the count. Fraud leaves evidence; if Ohio is stolen, the country will be shut down. But I don’t think Ohio will be stolen.

    As for the GOP concerns about Sandy, I confess I’ve wondered if it has screwed up GOP plans that depended on powered voting machines.

  23. High Finance
    November 5, 2012 at 7:18 am

    Spoken like a true child Mitch. “I lost so you must have cheated”.

    Man up and whatever the results are accept them without childishness.

  24. November 5, 2012 at 7:25 am

    Hi High,

    We all saw the Florida GOP-paid thugs on the teevee, High. If Romney wins Ohio legally, I’m prepared to accept that he does so. But if statistics demonstrate that voting machine percentages vary substantially from ballots submitted without voting machines, or if there’s other similar evidence of theft, I’ll be working with those who try to shut the country down.

    I’m not that worried that such will be necessary — the only conspiracy of which I’m aware is an extensive one in place to monitor any attempted fraud.

  25. Steve h
    November 5, 2012 at 7:28 am

    I predict Obama gets 303 electoral votes, winning VA, CO, OH, NH, losing NC and FL.

  26. November 5, 2012 at 7:35 am

    Hi High,

    (Repeating one that got stuck in moderation.)

    We all saw the Florida GOP-paid thugs on the teevee working to prevent a recount, High. If Romney wins Ohio legally, I’m prepared to accept that he does so. But if statistics demonstrate that voting machine percentages vary substantially from ballots submitted without voting machines, or if there’s other similar evidence of theft, I’ll be working with those who try to shut the country down.
    I’m not that worried that such will be necessary — the only conspiracy of which I’m aware is an extensive one in place to monitor any attempted fraud.

  27. Just Middle Finance
    November 5, 2012 at 7:57 am

    Polls, schmolls. Like High Fi has been saying, we’re gonna buy this election just like other elections. Locally, we do it with a “Chamber of Commerce” led slate of candidates. Nationally, the big multi-national corporations pay for “our guy” and any state election machines which may need a little adjustment our direction and presto!, we’re in charge.

  28. anoni-pollster
    November 5, 2012 at 8:07 am

    I think it’s pretty much over for Mitten. Argue all you want to about Nate Silver’s numbers, but read the articles and go over the math. Obama wins the popular by 1-2 points and digs out over 300 electoral votes. I sure would like to see one part of Pesky’s prediction come true, getting Nancy Pelosi out of leadership. She’s been an abject failure.

    I can understand the hope that Pesky & Ponder have, as well as all Romneyites……..the poll numbers just don’t back them up. What else can they say? Bob Dole was claiming victory was his until the votes were in.

  29. Eric Kirk
    November 5, 2012 at 9:27 am

    A pesky fact :

    Here is what, imho, the swing states come down to. Shamelessly swiped from ace.mu.nu

    O+0.05% – Current RCP Average
    O+0.76% – Average using the 2008 turnout model
    R+2.02% – Average using the D+3 turnout model
    R+4.26% – Average using the 2010 turnout model
    R+4.30% – Average using the 2004 turnout model
    R+6.04% – Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

    RCP has a history of favoring Republicans in their polling averages, largely because they ignore a number of Democratic Party commissioned polls while including all of the Republican polls. There’s a Democracy Corps. poll out this morning which has Obama four points ahead. They are Democratic leaning, but always well within the mean averages. All of the polls have Obama ahead by one or two points, or tied – with the lone exception of Rasmussen. Even Gravis has them tied.

    Rasmussen has Romney ahead in Virginia. Everyone else has Obama ahead.

    Rasmussen has them tied in Ohio. Everyone else has Obama ahead. Everyone.

    But will the long lines deter voters? That’s certainly what Kasich and company have in mind.

    All of the other averages have Obama ahead.

  30. November 5, 2012 at 10:27 am

    Considering all the shenanigans going on, I’ll save you the wait and call “Fraud” right now. Do think those Republican traitors stand a chance without fraud and corruption? Hardly. They are domestic enemies who will do absolutely anything to destroy this country and turn it into their own feudal paradise.

  31. Anonymous
    November 5, 2012 at 2:48 pm

    moviedad :
    Considering all the shenanigans going on, I’ll save you the wait and call “Fraud” right now. Do think those Republican traitors stand a chance without fraud and corruption? Hardly. They are domestic enemies who will do absolutely anything to destroy this country and turn it into their own feudal paradise.

    Childish is the perfect description of your post.

  32. November 5, 2012 at 3:04 pm

    Actually, it may not be childish at all — except in the sense of the Emperor’s New Clothes.

    Apply cui bono — who benefits? Why would a financial class make so much continuous destruction, besides their dream of riches in the newly developing countries?

    How would your accountant of bubbles act as bubble opportunity disappears? In the way of accountants, they would go for the maximum return of their investments, even or especially those which have been made to appear written off.

    The political policy which gains this is called austerity, and it has already been applied to much of the rest of the world. Do you think they don’t want to recover their percentage on the dollar here?

    I’m not much of one on conspiracy theories, at all. Knowing something of how accountants in a culture or two tend to think, this wouldn’t be conspiracy for them — just one more continuing step on a road that winds up and down, where you take the maximum on both the up and the down.

    As far as moviedad, he may get angry (and may not we all?) but he’s definitely one of those whose independent thoughts are worth the listen. A number of them here, actually.

  33. November 5, 2012 at 3:11 pm

    p.s. Mitch — will put it here to avoid further clutter elsewhere. I dug into the comment moderating surprises a little, and it looks like what I surmised may be true, if you are using Akismet, the normal WordPress guard.

    Indeed Akismet trains to recognize patterns it thinks are spam. You need to cross-train it on the sorts of comments that get caught by it improperly in your own case, if so — more thoughtful than average, I’d say, on these pages, which is why moderating gets obtusely set off.

    Here’s a link with procedure – I think it only adds a step to stop by the Akismet panel to specify a recovered comment is ok, as you decide that.

    Why they don’t just link your approval to an Akismet training is something outstanding in the thought process of many programmers…

    http://codex.wordpress.org/Combating_Comment_Spam

  34. Plain Jane
    November 5, 2012 at 3:41 pm

    Voter caging, bogus voter purges, too few voting machines in selected areas, changing voting days and times and issuing misleading voting information, training poll workers to mislead voters into thinking they aren’t qualified to vote and pushing photo ID requirements when there is no evidence that there is a problem with in-person voter fraud are all election fraud. When one party has gone to such obvious and extreme lengths to disenfranchise voters to increase their chance of winning, it doesn’t take a conspiracy theorist to suspect they might try other means to steal an election that aren’t so obvious.

  35. Mitch
    November 5, 2012 at 3:54 pm

    Thanks, Narration. I’ll forward your comments to Heraldo, in case he/she/it/they doesn’t see them here. I doubt I have access to the wordpress settings on the level you describe.

  36. 69er
    November 5, 2012 at 4:49 pm

    Think about this when you vote, I did…..

  37. Plain Jane
    November 5, 2012 at 4:56 pm

    Broken promises aren’t lies.

  38. Plain Jane
    November 5, 2012 at 4:58 pm

    These are lies:

  39. Eric Kirk
    November 5, 2012 at 7:57 pm

    Nate Silver getting cocky? He just flipped Florida into the “leans Obama” category and upped his percentage for an Obama win to 92.

    His career is made or broken tomorrow, and scores of pundits are already pissed at him – not necessarily because they support Romney or a horse race, but because they could be made obsolete by regression analysis. He’s going to face the fire whether he’s right or wrong. Sucks to be a brilliant geek who sticks to his guns!

    Meanwhile, come Wednesday, this Onion piece could prove prophetic.

    http://www.theonion.com/articles/new-york-times-bully-knocks-stack-of-polls-from-na,30218/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=standard-post:headline:default

  40. Anonymous
    November 6, 2012 at 8:01 am

    We can all pray that Nate Silver is throughly discredited tomorrow. Both of Florida’s major papers have polls showing Romney by 4 and 5 points.

  41. Plain Jane
    November 6, 2012 at 8:18 am

    You should stay home tomorrow and pray, #40. It’s the only chance Mitt has.

  42. November 6, 2012 at 9:07 am

    Nate Silver was great on Colbert last night. He sure uses his hands a lot when he’s talking, but I like the guy. If I ever heard a republican talk in such a casual, friendly, self-deprecating way, I would like him too. People are people, and it’s not the “politics” of the republicans, and democrats too for that matter; that turns me off so much, it’s the people.
    And thank you “Narration”, for always being such a calm, respectful voice of reason on these pages, though you are an excellent example what we lose when individuals like yourself are anonymous, I still consider your words carefully. So I guess that is a point the “Pro-Anonymity” crowd is making, that it’s the words that count. I just don’t agree, it’s the person that counts. Both Jesus Christ and Adolph Hitler made pretty speeches, but it’s who they were in real-life that matters.

  43. Plain Jane
    November 6, 2012 at 9:55 am

    Ezra Klein says a conservative read of the polls is Obama with 290, but could possibly be as high as 303.

  44. November 6, 2012 at 9:56 am

    Hi moviedad, and that’s well argued ;).

    Why I remain anonymous. I did grow up in Humboldt, once upon a childhood, and returned for a year just to know it again not quite as long ago. I now live at the other end of California, where I landed not far from a brother when the 2008 business caught me in its wave of catastrophe. I am not one of your recently self-announced 1%-ers, that’s sure.

    I have two reasons. One is sort of professional, though that diminishes — in fact I’ve always kept my real name nearly not visible on the internet, at first just out of instinct. The other is that there is family history of a kind in Humboldt that all of us would wish to remain quite undisturbed, for its honor.

    Unlikely to rescind, then, but I do try to offer as much as seems reasonable about where I am coming from in terms of life experience and points of view, as that’s only fair. I do it in fact with some attention to your last point; instinct there too.

    You’ll appreciate that all life can be viewed as constructed, but that consistency in letting the contexts show can speak pretty well, and that it would be a lot of work without cause to build a personally fictional story. I’d prefer to do it on actual stories.

    I do enjoy the backgrounds of others, and web pages such as yours which show something of a life, quite a bit in fact. Maybe I can think of how to do something like that, without spilling all the beans. Busy yet with ‘builiding something’ else, but maybe there would be a way to combine the two.

    Cheers up there, and please keep up just as you do also — it’s appreciated.

  45. November 6, 2012 at 10:03 am

    Well, ‘halp’ again, Mitch or Eric. Seems I have really got WordPress not liking me, this time for just replying nicely to moviedad.

    As far as being given permission to do what’s probably necessary with that Akismet marking-training of false moderations, had meant to say anyway that this shouldn’t be a problem for the agglomerated (they?? interesting concept for Heraldo..) auspices to grant you.

    I can’t see any way that this would be a security or ethical problem, since you’d just end up with posts in the bag to deal with should it be misused.

    Anyway, thanks.

  46. November 6, 2012 at 10:21 am

    moviedad. How do you know what kind of a person Jesus Christ was in real life? You only got words to define him, and mixed words at that.

    How do you know who they are when everyone is slandering their reputations and character? When the person becomes the issue their words go out the window.

    It is true that who we are is more important than what we are, but that determination requires a physical face to face. Here we’re just dealing with words. You going to judge the value of “my word” just because you know or rather don’t know who I am? I took that issue out of the equation, but that didn’t stop the prolific wannabe little gods from trying to attack me personally.

  47. Plain Jane
    November 6, 2012 at 10:31 am

    “I just don’t agree, it’s the person that counts. Both Jesus Christ and Adolph Hitler made pretty speeches, but it’s who they were in real-life that matters.”

    But the good guy got killed for his openly stating his beliefs. If he’d been anonymous he might have lived a long and profitable life raising the dead, healing the sick and making wine.

  48. tra
    November 6, 2012 at 11:12 am

    While the election is obviously the big news today, something that could have a really important impact locally is that a collaborative group has been formed which includes both Healthy Humboldt and HumCPR — along with myriad other “stakeholder” groups including the Mattole Restoration Council, the North Coast Home Builders’ Association, Humboldt United Stand, the local Civil Liberties Monitoring Project, the Humboldt Builders’ Exchange, California Center for Rural Policy, the local Complete Streets Working Group and the Humboldt Association of Realtors — and will be working together to help identify areas of broad consensus on the General Plan and to improve the dialogue on issues where significant disagreements remain.

    http://www.times-standard.com/localnews/ci_21937911/county-supes-delay-talk-general-plan-update-new?source=rss

    [Just to be clear, although the T-S article makes it sound like Lee Ulansey was speaking on behalf of Healthy Humboldt, a comment in the Facebook comments thread, from Hezekiah of the Mattole Restoration Council clarified that Ulansey of HumCPR was standing alongside Dan Ehresman of Healthy Humboldt and announcing the joint effort, not that Ulansey was acting the spokesman for Healthy Humboldt]

    This seems like it could potentially be a very positive development, and one that, although it may slow down the process a bit in the short term, might help the supervisors work toward an outcome that a majority of Humboldt residents can support, at least on most points. The groups made it clear that they do not expect to reach consensus on every single policy option, but hope to both identify areas of agreement, and also improve the dialogue where there are disagreements.

    Time will tell as to whether this effort will be fruitful in improving that dialogue, but it does seem like this approach may help ensure that as the process moves forward, some of the most prominent advocates of different options will at least be talking TO each other, instead of, as often seems to be the case, mostly talking PAST each other. In any event, I applaud these folks for their efforts, and wish them well.

  49. anonymous
    November 6, 2012 at 2:54 pm

    That would be good news Tra. If it works we have Rex, Virginia & Ryan to thank for it.

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