Does Obama have it in the Bag?
No, although Republican leaders are clearly worried about it, which is why they’re already pushing a narrative that Hurricane Sandy and the imperative for national unity, rather than a political mandate is what will hand him the win. And Romney is trying for Pennsylvania because of some movement in the polls, even appearing there today. If he can pull that off then he could, in theory, win without Ohio.
And according to one report I’ve seen, Obama’s early turnout numbers in Ohio aren’t as great as they were in 2008, when he won by a very narrow margin.
There has been very subtle but effective early voter suppression by Republicans in office in Ohio and Florida, where there are already mass lines with hours of waiting and much confusion, particularly in Democratic-heavy counties. I think it will be enough to turn Florida for Romney. I don’t think it’ll be enough in Ohio, particularly in the Toledo area where Obama is revered for saving the auto-industry and Romney is facing a backlash for his Jeep-to-China ad which generated press statements from both GM and Chrysler calling Romney a liar.
The photo above depicts a small portion of a line of early voters in Cleveland which is five blocks long. That’s the image Obama wants to see. Don’t expect any favors from the state’s Republican Attorney General who already tried to block what his office termed, “the African American Turnout Machine” appealing the court order against his cessation of early voting all the way to the Supreme Court.
Nate Silver is angering the pundits because he’s contradicted their whole narrative of Romney momentum and their reliance upon polling which doesn’t give Obama many battleground state leads over 5 percent. His regression analysis is basically giving Obama an 80 percent chance of winning – which would make a huge branch of the press corps look like idiots, including people like Chuck Todd and Cokie Roberts. They wouldn’t be angry with him if they thought he was wrong about everything from his rejection of Gallup as an outlier to his Ohio and Virginia projections where the consensus is that “we just don’t know.”
Either he or they will lose a great deal of capital on Tuesday.
TPM’s poll tracker is giving Obama the likelihood of 303 electoral college votes. He needs 270. You can click on each state to see the recent polling breakdowns. Pew has him ahead by 3 points in the popular vote. The tracking polls mostly give him a one or two point lead. If you look at Ohio, you have one Republican pollster indicating a tie. But Rasmussen and Gravis give Obama significant leads. It’s hard to see how Romney wins Ohio, unless everybody is off.